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How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

minutephysics
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This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: ukvid.net/video/%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Kas0tIxDvrg.html
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
And facebook - facebook.com/minutephysics

Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

Created by Henry Reich

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27 бер 2020

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КОМЕНТАРІ 80
Vito C
Vito C 2 години тому
The Philippines is handling this horribly. We don't even know how our curve looks because the government won't conduct mass testing as adequate levels. And we're relaxing quarantine measures (after THREE MONTHS) before we've even seen any evidence that the curve is flattening.
Balesy10plays Yt
Balesy10plays Yt 11 годин тому
Roses are red violets are blue why does the Karen think covid-19 is just the ordinary flu
Douglas Powell
Douglas Powell 19 годин тому
Can you revisit with current data and talk about why so many countries demonstrate exponential decay, but not USA? I also tried looking at new cases as ppm and displayed not as absolute numbers but rate of change. There appears to be a period "bump" approximately every 7 days. Is this real or a result of how data is collected?
snehalkumar padghane
snehalkumar padghane 23 години тому
How's india doing ?Plz reply
Paul T Sjordal
Paul T Sjordal День тому
Lately, Republicans have been using the Total Cases statistic to argue that blue states have a worse response to this pandemic than red states. This video beautifully explains why changes in New Cases is the most relevant statistic if we want to talk about a given government's response to this pandemic.
Paul T Sjordal
Paul T Sjordal День тому
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html This does not make the same calculation the Minutephysics channel suggests, but it does show changes in new cases over time broken down by state.
Jennifer Beveridge
Jennifer Beveridge День тому
Two months later, and I'm still checking this graph on a daily basis. I've noticed that rather than a flat or smooth curve, my state's version of "leveling out" is a series of dips where the weekly infection rate is between 500 to 600 new cases, and peaks where it's in the upper 700's. That made me wonder: since going out to restock my fridge / pantry is unavoidable, is it safer to go out during a dip or a peak? Are there any epidemiologists who've worked this out with previous infectious diseases?
choreomaniac
choreomaniac 2 дні тому
Pennsylvania department of health has adopted this graphic animation!
Arvind Nande
Arvind Nande 2 дні тому
And another Indian!
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
The graph (and video) should be modified by doing a log plot of new reported deaths per million versus a log plot of total reported deaths per million. In the absence of that it is quite misleading and is virtually certain to lead to widespread misunderstanding.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
I like this a lot. It seems like a good idea. But where the heck is the follow-up? Since this important you should be updating it at least once a week. You don't have to do it yourself, just modify the intro, not the video, but the blub below the video, by posting a link to someone else that is doing this.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
Ok, I've found it. See aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths The US fell off the line in the first half of April. And I believe that graph and the graph in this minutephysics video would be improved if it did a log/log plot of new reported deaths per million versus total reported deaths per million. As it is this plot falsely makes it appear as if many countries that are not doing well, like for instance Belgium, are doing very well, simply and only because they are small.
Duncan
Duncan 3 дні тому
.
houndarchon1
houndarchon1 3 дні тому
the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!
Hamisi Abdallah
Hamisi Abdallah 3 дні тому
You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19 Virus.ukvid.net/video/%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-iz1jKtMk768.html
Gordon GM
Gordon GM 4 дні тому
Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that
Initially Intellectual
Initially Intellectual 4 дні тому
Why you stoped uploading
Jesse Wood
Jesse Wood 4 дні тому
“In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George
BugPvP :p
BugPvP :p 5 днів тому
1:31 OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"
Randy Smith
Randy Smith 5 днів тому
That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!
Jinhong PARK
Jinhong PARK 5 днів тому
My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea
Kalan Saunders
Kalan Saunders 5 днів тому
Covid 19 is ending in Australia
peppercorn owl
peppercorn owl 3 дні тому
Yay!
Eben Visher
Eben Visher 5 днів тому
What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!
王荺勝
王荺勝 6 днів тому
Chinese data are fake
刘娅
刘娅 6 днів тому
well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )
Alexander Jackson
Alexander Jackson 7 днів тому
Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.
Eva Lam
Eva Lam 7 днів тому
China is LYING !!!!
karen
karen 7 днів тому
That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD
nitchvideo
nitchvideo 7 днів тому
Here is a powerful source of understanding. ukvid.net/video/%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-gxAaO2rsdIs.html and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding
John the Greek
John the Greek 7 днів тому
Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though
Freeda Peeple
Freeda Peeple 7 днів тому
I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!
Benjamin Genco
Benjamin Genco 7 днів тому
I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
And I was right. I've tracked it down and the US data begins to fall off that line sometime in the first half of April.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
I'm pretty certain it has. This graph and video are from two months ago, when the American epidemic had just begun. In fact I'll bet the US data plummeted over a month ago, back in the first half of April.
Jewelry Bag
Jewelry Bag 7 днів тому
This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off
wojeff
wojeff 7 днів тому
March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered
Eugenia Sum
Eugenia Sum 8 днів тому
They didn’t include Taiwan tho
wojeff
wojeff 7 днів тому
I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan
Bern Metro
Bern Metro 8 днів тому
Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
@wojeff Ok thank you again. It me a few minutes to figure out what they were doing and to find the plot of new reported deaths versus total reported deaths. Here's the problem. Why not normalize the data? That is divide the numbers on each axis by the population of the country. That would make it possible to compare countries. As it is right now, it makes it appear that the United States is doing very badly, when this is largely an artifact of it being both the largest country plotted plus having more complete data.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa 2 дні тому
@wojeff Thanks!
wojeff
wojeff 7 днів тому
aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Jorge Cossa
Jorge Cossa 8 днів тому
Nice
Mario Z
Mario Z 8 днів тому
The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.
wojeff
wojeff 7 днів тому
That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths
Yash Pal Goyal
Yash Pal Goyal 10 днів тому
6:26 please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE
Yash Pal Goyal
Yash Pal Goyal 10 днів тому
otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.
Arwah Sapi
Arwah Sapi 10 днів тому
Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"
Fez Paladin
Fez Paladin 10 днів тому
WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?
sk Farhan
sk Farhan 12 днів тому
Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?
John Hailstone
John Hailstone 12 днів тому
And post-viral effects.
LIL JON'S
LIL JON'S 12 днів тому
Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ 12 днів тому
>implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything
tom091178
tom091178 13 днів тому
Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.
Tae-young Kim
Tae-young Kim 13 днів тому
중국은 조작인거 아시죠?
North Korea
North Korea 13 днів тому
America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes
no name
no name 5 днів тому
Russia: Cyka Blyat
Wendull 81
Wendull 81 7 днів тому
Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.
52marli
52marli 13 днів тому
I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.
Dodger Yassel
Dodger Yassel 14 днів тому
You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.
khoen Da boss
khoen Da boss 14 днів тому
Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.
Jean Poutine
Jean Poutine 14 днів тому
Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.
Davin Riedstra
Davin Riedstra 15 днів тому
This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.
Mister Comple
Mister Comple 13 днів тому
aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Parakmi I
Parakmi I 15 днів тому
To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.
pragadeesh sv
pragadeesh sv 15 днів тому
can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?
DONG YEUN KIM
DONG YEUN KIM 15 днів тому
COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*
Rin
Rin 16 днів тому
this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..
Mister Comple
Mister Comple 13 днів тому
your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data
jokinabadsbs
jokinabadsbs 16 днів тому
China... Success?! HAH what a joke.
CircleDrawing
CircleDrawing 17 днів тому
US isn't tough
김철수
김철수 18 днів тому
국뽕...
Jacob E Owens
Jacob E Owens 19 днів тому
Nobody believes the numbers out of China...
Simranjeet singh matharoo
Simranjeet singh matharoo 19 днів тому
"don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there
what is life
what is life 19 днів тому
Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!
karen
karen 7 днів тому
Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here
Rachel’s rants I.
Rachel’s rants I. 19 днів тому
Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.
AGR
AGR 19 днів тому
Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...
소고기커피
소고기커피 20 днів тому
im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.
Paul Matencio
Paul Matencio 21 день тому
Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead
Naomi Harding
Naomi Harding 21 день тому
Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.
Ciron Soauv
Ciron Soauv 21 день тому
What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...
Bigdatamonk Inc.
Bigdatamonk Inc. 22 дні тому
@minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.
banbanrocks
banbanrocks 22 дні тому
Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?
Russ Wilkie
Russ Wilkie 18 днів тому
It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.
Ron Chasr
Ron Chasr 22 дні тому
Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.
Robert Lockwood
Robert Lockwood 22 дні тому
Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.
dead pool
dead pool 22 дні тому
Are we wining or losing
Matthew Snyder
Matthew Snyder 23 дні тому
ukvid.net/video/%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-Tw9Ci2PZKZg.html
XCMysterious Hope
XCMysterious Hope 23 дні тому
After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.
Harb Winetin
Harb Winetin 23 дні тому
China's number of cases are a lie of course.
banbanrocks
banbanrocks 22 дні тому
People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.
savemelofi
savemelofi 23 дні тому
Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?
savemelofi
savemelofi 16 днів тому
@banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.
banbanrocks
banbanrocks 22 дні тому
It's about the truth, not CCP.
Ben E
Ben E 23 дні тому
Probably should throw out chinas numbers...
DEMONSTRIA WOO
DEMONSTRIA WOO 23 дні тому
Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.
banbanrocks
banbanrocks 22 дні тому
Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed
DEMONSTRIA WOO
DEMONSTRIA WOO 23 дні тому
I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ 10 днів тому
The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.
Prakash Goyal
Prakash Goyal 23 дні тому
Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho
supersonic2K8
supersonic2K8 23 дні тому
This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)
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